O registro publicado sobre o qual construímos.
A mecânica de como a opinião se move vem do registro publicado, fórmula a fórmula. Os eixos comportamentais que a alimentam são autorais, com aderência ao perfil demográfico medida — e dizemos qual é qual.
Fundamentos
Ciência comportamental e simulação de agentes.
01Daniel Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus & Giroux.2011
02Tversky & Kahneman. "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases." Science 185.1974
03Robert Cialdini. Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion. Harper Business.1984
04Jonathan Haidt. The Righteous Mind. Pantheon Books.2012
05Damon Centola. How Behavior Spreads. Princeton University Press.2018
06Watts & Strogatz. "Collective dynamics of small-world networks." Nature 393.1998
07Park et al. "Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior." Stanford / arXiv.2023
08Thaler & Sunstein. Nudge. Yale University Press.2008
Fronteira · Camada 01
Pessoa sintética — personas e indivíduos.
09"DeepPersona: A Generative Engine for Scaling Deep Synthetic Personas." Deep persona generation via a taxonomy of human attributes.2025
10"How Well Do LLMs Capture Human Personality?" On persona-manifold collapse in latent space.2026
11"The Need for a Socially-Grounded Persona Framework for User Simulation." Sociopsychological frameworks vs. isolated demographic attributes.2026
12"Eval4Sim: An Evaluation Framework for Persona Simulation." Adherence, consistency and naturalness against human corpora.2026
13"Beyond Cooperative Simulators: Realistic User Personas for Robust Evaluation." Evolutionary search with multi-objective fitness over personas.2026
14"Persona Vectors: Monitoring and Controlling Character Traits." Persona vectors in activation space.2025
Fronteira · Camada 02
Sociedade sintética — simulação social emergente.
15Park et al. "Generative Agent Simulations of 1,000 People." Replicas of real individuals validated against the General Social Survey.2024
16"SocioVerse." A social-simulation world model over a pool of 10M real users.2025
17"AgentSociety: Large-Scale Simulation of LLM-Driven Agents." Computational experiments on polarization, basic income and shocks.2025
18"HumanStudy-Bench: AI Agent Design for Participant Simulation." Reconstructs human-subject studies and measures behavioral agreement.2026
19"Don't Trust Generative Agents — Unless You Benchmarked their Empirical Realism." Empirical realism must be validated, not assumed.2025
20"From ChatGPT to DeepSeek: Can LLMs Simulate Humanity?" A critical examination of the limits of simulating human behavior.2025
Fronteira · Camada 03
Civilização cognitiva — coevolução aberta.
21"Agentopia: Long-Term Life Simulation and Learning in Agent Societies." Agents develop social intelligence over simulated "years."2026
22"Static Sandboxes Are Inadequate: Open-Ended Co-Evolution in LLM Multi-Agent Simulations." Open-ended co-evolution vs. static sandboxes.2025
23"Cooperate or Collapse" (GovSim). Emergence of sustainable cooperation — or collapse — among agents.2024
Base
Surveys de fundamentação.
24"From Individual to Society: A Survey on Social Simulation Driven by LLM-based Agents." Covers the individual → society progression.2024
Transparência
Toda estimativa sai com incerteza declarada.
Bandas, não pontos. Toda estimativa comportamental vem com sua banda de incerteza e as fontes de calibração — nunca um número seco.
Ver como medimos →
Novos backtests
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Quando uma população ganha ou perde um selo, ou um resultado real novo é medido contra o motor, escrevemos uma vez. Sem cadência de newsletter — só entradas novas no registro.